In his own blog, Michael Cloppert writes:
Adam, and readers from Emergent Chaos, provided some good feedback on this idea. Even though the general response is that this wouldn’t be a supportable approach, I appreciate the input! This helps me focus my research intentions on the most promising theories and technologies.
I’m glad my readers helped with good feedback, but I think he’s taking the wrong lesson. The lesson should be that there are lots of skeptics, not that the idea won’t work.
And Adam from InklingMarkets has offered to help.)
Haft of the Spear points to an Inkling market, “Group Intel” who are taking bets on bin Laden’s being captured or killed before the end of Bush II. There have only been a few trades with hefty price swings, but why not try it out for infosec? Maybe some chaos would emerge.
(Incidentally, new, interesting comments are still coming in on “Security Prediction Markets: theory & practice.”)